At some point, I think the President’s campaign people need to take a long look at whether Secretary Clinton would really provide an electoral boost as V.P. in the key non-Kerry states. If there is evidence that she does - and I think that the concept is nearly empirically impossible to substantiate - what’s the upside of staying the course? I don’t think the V.P. slot changes anyone’s mind about voting D vs. R. I think it’s possible that the casual D voter who was debating staying home as his or her protest might drag him or herself to the polls to pull the lever for Clinton.
Put another way, Joe Biden was the guy you ran with when you needed to convince people that the team wasn’t too green to take over the responsibilities which come with the office. That’s not necessarily the guy who is needed in 2012.
My political prediction for 2012 (based on absolutely no inside information): Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden swap places. Biden becomes Secretary of State — a position he’s apparently coveted for years. And Hillary Clinton, Vice President.
So the Democratic ticket for 2012 is Obama-Clinton.
Why…

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